Models, reality and the limits to growth

Fourcultures recently pointed out the contentious relationship between computer-driven models and the reality they claim to be modelling.

More analysis of The Limits to Growth modelling  is now published in American Scientist journal.

Charles A.S. Hall and John W. Day, Jr. 2009 Revisiting the Limits to Growth After Peak Oil American Scientist Vol 97 (May-June): 230-237.

Hall and Day claim ‘We are not aware of any model made by economists that is as accurate over such a long time span’ (p.235).

You can download the full article and a good summary and discussion is at the Oil Drum.

This complements a recent report from Australian government (CSIRO) scientist Dr Graham Turner, who revisited the business as usual projections of The Limits to Growth from 1972 and found that actual observation matched the projections pretty well. Continue reading Models, reality and the limits to growth

When all that unites us is our fear


At New Statesman magazine, Hugh Aldersley-Williams quotes Mary Douglas and Aaron Wildavsky’s Risk and Culture,

“people select their awareness of certain dangers to conform with a specific way of life”. He worries that we may reach a state in which “all we have in common is our fears”.

Actually, it’s very unlikely we’ll reach a consensus on our fears. The question of risk is a vexed one. According to Ulrich Beck, modernity is the process by which progress is overtaken by its negative side effects, so that the side effects, especially pollution of all sorts, become the main event. This is the ‘risk society’ in which we are increasingly defined by our status vis a vis threats to life – we take ‘social risk positions’. In stark contrast, Frank Furedi sees this as shamefully defeatist. For Furedi human ingenuity is the flame that burns eternal and there is no threat that isn’t in the end a wonderful opportunity. He disparages Beck’s thesis as ‘the culture of fear’. So who is correct? My money is on something known as grid-group cultural theory (developed by Douglas, Wildavsky and others) which proposes there are four mutually antagonistic cultural perspectives which institutions and individuals in them can adopt. Beck speaks for ‘Egalitarianism’, Furedi for ‘Individualism’, but there are two others, “Fatalism’ and ‘Hierarchy’. All coalitions of risk (eg the idea that wearing seatbelts in cars has saved lives, see the work of John Adams) are no more than fairly unstable temporary agreements between two or more of these.

Is God literally real?

3247937322_0f82afc8c1Philosopher A.C. Grayling writes about  the illiterate roots of religion.

The ‘roots’ of religion may be illiterate, but this is hardly a cogent argument since the roots of everything, including writing, are illiterate.

Further, it’s unhelpful to disparage illiteracy in a generalising way. Australian Aboriginal culture, for instance, has been ‘illiterate’ for most of its existence, yet is one of the high points of human achievement. Far from being ‘primitive’ as European theorists such as Durkheim claimed, it is highly advanced and has a highly advanced relationship with its environment. In a sense, country is the ‘text’ with which Aboriginal culture is ‘written’, or the page on which it is inscribed. Or rather, literacy in the sense we understand it is a pale shadow of its former glory (was it Socrates who thought writing was an inferior form compared with face to face discourse?). Continue reading Is God literally real?

Sucks so hard it blows…

ubunchu-extractNever thought I’d find a use for that phrase, but a certain (unco-)operating system has given me the perfect excuse. I think we all know what I’m talking about. In fact it sucks so much I’m finally going to give the new Ubuntu a serious try. Having used Knoppix before to resurrect a dead PC and finding it worked a treat, Linux does not scare me, oh no…

Please help with the Fourcultures FAQ!

It’s high time this site, and the world of grid-group cultural theory, had a FAQ – a list of frequently asked questions online. SO now’s the chance to help build one.

Please visit  the new FAQ creation page to:

  • submit your questions,
  • view what others have already asked and
  • vote the best ones up the charts.
  • (Or you could just leave a comment below)

Thanks!

The FAQ creator uses Google’s ‘moderator’ poll service, and this request also gives you the chance to check it out.

Leave your mark on the FAQ!

She’s a model and she’s looking good, or how to spot a model that actually works

Tom Quirk has an article in right of centre magazine Quadrant pouring cold water on climate change modelling by arguing that, after all, it’s just a model.

I think there’s some sense in this, if only it wasn’t being said by people who are just looking for another reason to tell us climate change mitigation is costly for rich people everyone. Junk in, junk out, right? But let’s take the argument a bit further than that. Indeed, what else could usefully be described as ‘just a model’? Continue reading She’s a model and she’s looking good, or how to spot a model that actually works

On Earth Day, here’s how to make Earth Hour last all year

Earth Hour – it’s been three weeks and I’m missing it already. I’d like it to last all year. So thank goodness for Earth Day, now showing at  a day near you.  I actually wrote this with the lights off during Earth Hour, but I lost it in the dark. Better late than never, I found it, so here it is. Continue reading On Earth Day, here’s how to make Earth Hour last all year